The results of the TONIC project are presented in form of deliverables periodically released by the project. Below you can find a list of deliverables released so far. The deliverables are available by email in pdf-format. If you are interested in them, please send an email to the contact person given at the bottom of this page stating your name, organisation and which deliverable(s) you want. The deliverables you requested for, will be emailed to you.
Published: February 2001
Abstract:
This deliverable describes the four business cases TONIC has selected for evaluation:
BC1: Seamless mobile IP service provision economics
BC2: Economic viability of 3G Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
BC3: Economics of fixed networks for broadband IP services
BC4: Economic viability of broadband services in non-competitive areasThe business case one studies the economics of an combined UMTS and Wireless LAN networks where large area coverage is offered by UMTS and dense area capacity by WLAN. BC1 details are presented in chapter 3. Business case two studies the economics of Mobile Virtual Network Operators in 3G era. BC2 is elaborated in chapter 4. Business case three in turn examines feasibility of various options for move from narrow band POTS world to a broadband fixed access, where fibre based solutions are likely to emerge. Details of this are found in chapter 5. Business case 4 closely relates to BC3 with the distinction that it will evaluate how the fixed broadband services can be made available also in non-urban areas, where fixed wireless systems are likely to appear. Chapter 6 gives details.
This deliverable presents the context, underlying assumptions and currently foreseen scenarios for each of the business cases. In addition the expected results are outlined together with a work plan.
Published: June 2001
Abstract:
This deliverable presents demand models and forecasts for the four business cases:BC1: Seamless mobile IP service provision economics
BC2: Economic viability of 3G Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
BC3: Economics of fixed networks for broadband services
BC4: Economic viability of broadband services in non-competitive areas
The first part of the deliverable describes demand models for business case 3 and 4 - the fixed network, while the second part of the deliverable describes broadband demand models for business case 1 and 2 - the mobile network.
An overview of relevant applications is presented together with evaluations of Quality of Service (QoS) and capacity requirements. A set of capacity classes is proposed for the fixed network. The forecast modelling is based on the proposed service classes. For business cases 1 and 2, the market is segmented in two basic user classes. For business case 4, externality models are described for demand in the rural areas.
Tariff prediction models and broadband subscription forecasting models based on information from numerous sources have been developed. The models and the predictions are presented. In addition busy hour traffic forecasts are developed as input to the dimensioning of the networks.
Published: August 2001
Abstract:
This deliverable presents the first techno-economic results on network solutions for seamless mobile IP service provision based on the BRAIN (IST-1999-10050) and MIND (IST-2000-28584) technical architecture, enabling seamless handover between 3G mobile and Wireless LAN (Hiperlan/2) networks. Analysis concerns two deployment scenarios, the first in an average "large" European country and the second in a smaller, Scandinavian-type country.The techno-economic analysis was performed for a 3G operator with and without a WLAN component for hot spot broadband coverage. The investment and operating cost structure is identified, as well as the breakdown of revenues. Initial results indicate that 3G operators benefit by deploying WLANs for broadband services. Net Present Value increases over the study period 2002-2011 by 25% in the large country type and by 10% in the small country type. Sensitivity studies show that the most critical parameters affecting the economic viability of the addition of WLANs are tariffs, overall penetration of mobile services, and market share. The deliverable also discusses competing technologies and their respective merits and weaknesses, as well as the economic impact of regulatory and standards issues.
This information can be exploited by European mobile operators and service providers interested in innovative solutions for continuous service provision via wideband radio.
Published: August 2001
Abstract:
This deliverable presents the first results of techno-economic evaluation of broadband network solutions for new IP services offered in the fixed network. These results are based on work performed over the first eight months of the project. Network solutions based on different physical media and combinations are explained and studied.BC 3 investigates mainly fibre based access architectures (FTTX) in combinations with copper lines applied within different urban areas. Two main network technologies which are using ATM or Ethernet as a "layer two" protocol basis are compared.
The first part of the deliverable describes the general assumptions which are applied. One of the main topics within BC3 is the comparison of different network technologies under common business case assumptions. An overview of first relevant calculations is presented for each of the studied technologies, which are then compared.
First conclusions are made, including plans for the next steps.
The first comparison of the scenarios gives initial conclusion that the investments for evaluated technologies under comparable conditions are in the same range. In general there is just a slight difference between the Ethernet switched network compared to the ATM based networks.
The infrastructure costs vary between 10% of total investments in Fibre to the Cabinet (FTTC) dense urban scenarios and up to more than 50% in case of Fibre to the Building / Office (FTTB /O). Also the positive impact to reduce the up-front investments by adjusting the fibre roll out according to the subscriber penetration evolution has been quantified.
Published: September 2001
Abstract:
This deliverable presents the first techno-economic results of study on economic viability of 3G Mobile Virtual Network Operators and also aims to discuss the increasing interest of companies to enter the mobile market across Europe.Emphasis is on demonstrating that the techno-economic model constructed properly takes into account the network architecture and underlying cost structure in the case of a 3G MVNOs. Fixed and variable costs are identified and the business case shows how different service sets lead to different costs. Focus is on full-MVNO deployment scenarios. The first in an average "large" European country and the second in a smaller, Scandinavian-type country. Different profiles of companies aiming to enter the 3G market as MVNOs have been investigating. Profitability for all scenarios and business profiles has been presented and sensitivity analysis regarding critical parameters has been performed. European mobile operators and service providers interested in entering the 3G market can exploit this information.
Published: September 2001
Abstract:
This deliverable presents the first results on the techno-economic evaluation of provision of broadband services in non-competitive areas. Three different European countries in terms of population size, socio-economic and demographic characteristics are studied.A geographical segmentation of the different countries is presented. Rural areas are characterized in terms of settlement patterns and socio-economic indicators. Different network technologies and architectures are analysed.
Demand and take rates for different services in rural areas have been forecasted. These are based on demand and tariff prediction models presented in TONIC deliverable 2.
The results show that broadband rollout of ADSL in Nordic countries has a rather long payback period. This is due to very low densities and high infrastructure cost in the areas. Rural areas in central European case represent a mix of central exchange areas with very low cost and more peripheral areas with higher cost figures due to civil works and establishment of new cabinets. The rollout of ADSL in such combined areas gives more profitable solutions with reasonable payback period and Net Present Values. Rural areas in Southern Europe mainly consist of small size, highly populated clusters. ADSL rollout in these areas can yield a fairly good project value.
Published: February 2002
Abstract:
This document gives an overview of TONIC tool and methodology to readers that are interested in techno-economics as applied to telecommunications in the TONIC project. The deliverable documents the upgraded tool, giving a precise overview of its background and functionalities. In addition, the interworking with the risk assessment program Crystal Ball is described together with specific algorithms developed for risk methodology. Finally, a short example is given to describe the way to build a complete model within TONIC tool.
Published: May 2002
Abstract:
This document presents the views of the TONIC project on the present key aspects of telecommunications markets and the evolution paths that are likely to follow in the near future as a consequence of the structural changes brought by IP technologies. Since the full capabilities of IP services are inextricably dependent on the capacity of the underlying telecommunications infrastructure, special attention is directed to the evolution of the broadband access market based on different physical access technologies.A set of broadband forecasts for residential and business market for West Europe and for specific country groups is presented: broadband penetration forecasts, market shares for different access technologies, tariff prediction models, demand and ARPU predictions for the mobile network and for public WLAN access in hot-spot areas, mobile forecasts for each country group. There are significant uncertainties in the forecast and the predictions. Hence risk analysis is used to examine the effect of the uncertainties.
From the overview of the current status of broadband (Internet enabled) penetration is possible to conclude that, presently, high prices, low availability and lack of competing infrastructures are the key factors behind the varying level of penetration. In many countries, flat rate subscriber charges have proved to be one of the main demand drivers.
Published: June 2002
Abstract:
This deliverable is an enrichment of the TONIC deliverable 5, refining the initial analysis of the economic viability of 3G Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs). This work assesses the market conditions and dynamics, the architectures and the different approaches for deployment of 3G MVNOs, trying to address specific advantages and pitfalls. Following the definition of appropriate service sets and tariff structures, and taking into account demand scenarios, this work has been focused on developing a techno-economic model, in order to compute key economic indicators. The document presents the final techno-economic results of this IST-TONIC business case and aims to discuss the increasing interest of companies to enter mobile market across Europe, especially those without any telecom background.
Focused on full-MVNO deployment scenarios and emphasizing on deployment alternatives for an average "large" European country and a smaller, Nordic-type country, the analysis and the underlying techno-economic model takes into account the network architecture and cost structure of a 3G MVNOs. Fixed and variable costs are identified and the business case shows how different service sets lead to different costs. Different MVNO business profiles have been investigated. Profitability for all scenarios and business profiles has been calculated, presented and discussed. It includes a sensitivity analysis in order to identify the major opportunities and threats, for specific service sets as well as critical parameters and uncertainties. A wide audience from mobile operators and service providers to retail companies interested in entering the 3G market, can exploit this information.
Published: August 2002
Abstract:
This deliverable presents a summary of all TONIC dissemination actions till August 2002. Overview of the Fourth European Workshop on Telecommunications Techno-economics is included, explaining such aspects as organisation, programme design, dissemination and attendance. A brief summary of the results presented during the sessions is provided.
Second part of the deliverable presents the TONIC publication list including abstracts of each paper.
Published: October 2002
Abstract:
This deliverable presents the final techno-economic results on network solutions for seamless mobile IP service provision enabling seamless handover between 3G mobile and WLAN networks. Investment and operating cost structure are identified, as well as the breakdown of revenues. Analysis concerns two major deployment scenarios, the first in an average “large” European country, and the second in a “small”, typical Scandinavian-type of country. The techno-economic analysis was performed for a 3G operator with and without a WLAN component for hot spot broadband coverage. Sub-scenarios are also developed for analysing the effect of network roll out pace, and also the impact of the license cost as well. Main conclusion are that 3G operators may slightly benefit by deploying high QoS Wireless LAN for broadband services, but the economic results are much more sensitive to license fee level and roll out pace. In general the investigated European UMTS cases are seen as positive prospects within the TONIC framework and basic assumptions.
Published: October 2002
Abstract:
This deliverable presents the final results on techno-economic analysis of broadband network solutions for new IP services offered in the fixed network. Fibre based access architectures (FTTx) in combinations with copper based and/or wireless systems in different type of urban areas are studied. Two main network technologies, using either ATM or Ethernet as a “layer-two” protocol are compared. In general the results show that there is just a slight difference in terms of investments between the Ethernet vs. ATM based networks. The comparison gives an indicator for the conclusion; the access network equipment investments under comparable conditions are in the same range and investment decisions should consider more the existing situation of the network operators. It is seen that the FTTH/O deployment scenario is highly risky especially in the urban area (>90% probability for negative NPV) under the given market assumptions. The FTTC deployment scenarios have small risk for the urban area and for the dense urban area, with little vanishing probability of negative NPV under the given business case assumptions. We note that in general the new BWA (Broadband Wireless Access) option seems to yield somewhat better results than EoVDSL FTTC solution. This is mainly due to BWA’s very smooth scaling behaviour. Apart from suburban area the full coverage is achieved with reasonably low number of Access Points. Later, as the capacity requirements grow, new APs can be deployed on demand. The infrastructure costs have generally a big influence in upgrading the existing access network architectures in order to provide new IP based services in urban and suburban areas.
Published: October 2002
Abstract:
This deliverable presents the final results from techno-economic evaluations of providing broadband services to non-competitive areas, from an access operator’s point of view. Three generic country types have been analysed. They are a Southern European country represented by Portugal, a Central European country and a Nordic country. The relevant technologies studied include ADSL, radio solutions such as, LMDS and DTT, and satellite based solutions. The results show that in some of the investigated areas, broadband survives can not be delivered profitably without substantial subsidisation. In these cases an attempt to calculate the necessary amount of subsidisation, ensuring the operator a reasonable return on investment, have been carried out. This subsidisation support may come from municipal, or governmental bodies, and/or even from the private business sector. The results presented in this deliverable provide valuable information for policymakers and for the EU Commission concerned with the additional support measures needed for offering broadband communication to these areas/sectors.
Published: December 2002
Abstract:
This deliverable summarises the major results from the IST-2000-25172 TONIC project and draws the final conclusions and recommendations. The project has performed techno-economic evaluation of four business cases addressing a wide range of crucial telecommuni-cations questions debated today. The cases are: Seamless mobile IP service provision economics, economic viability of 3G Mobile Virtual Network Operators, economics of fixed networks for broadband IP services and economic viability of broadband services in non-competitive areas. Extensive market analysis has been carried out for modelling demand, penetrations and tariff structures for new mobile services and broadband services as an input to the business cases. Results show that over 10-year life cycle, UMTS business is profitable in most cases for es-tablished operators with reasonable market share. Also the 3G MVNO business case is profit-able under typical conditions when MVNO yields over 10% penetration. Provision of fixed broadband services with Fibre To The Curb solution is viable in dense urban and urban areas, but not in suburban environment, while Fibre To The Home is viable only in dense urban ar-eas. Choice of protocol (ATM vs. Ethernet) makes no big difference. Provision of 1Mbit/s broadband service to rural areas requires 300-1000€ subsidisation per customer over 10 years in order to be feasible.
Ms. Johanna Stenlund, Nokia Research Center, Itämerenkatu 11-13, 00180 Helsinki, FINLAND.
email: johanna.stenlund@nokia.com